tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6900756789775770074.post2944012792285594759..comments2020-01-10T00:35:37.913-05:00Comments on So Far From Normal: Reflections on the Western States LotteryJimbohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00518039689275322948noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6900756789775770074.post-77737190085283258952011-12-13T21:21:34.353-05:002011-12-13T21:21:34.353-05:00Gerber - what are the odds of getting into Hardroc...Gerber - what are the odds of getting into Hardrock 3 times in a row?? Pretty slim I would guess ;)<br /><br />I am regretting though not using my qualifier to at least try to get in for next year. Oh well - I guess I will just have to get one this year too....Jimbohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00518039689275322948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6900756789775770074.post-75925231872163023582011-12-13T19:20:50.648-05:002011-12-13T19:20:50.648-05:00Those are way better odds than Hardrock. :-)Those are way better odds than Hardrock. :-)Chris Gerbernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6900756789775770074.post-66660019089986024852011-12-13T09:53:30.535-05:002011-12-13T09:53:30.535-05:00Marco - as it stands, there is no end game. Keep l...Marco - as it stands, there is no end game. Keep losing the lottery, and you will get an extra ticket in the draw for the following year, subject to qualifying.<br /><br />Jim, you are right, that is way too much math for that early in the morning! But thanks - I will look at your methodology, it makes sense.... and gives me some hope!Jimbohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00518039689275322948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6900756789775770074.post-36282247305636148352011-12-13T09:48:06.640-05:002011-12-13T09:48:06.640-05:00how many tickes can you actually accumulate? Can y...how many tickes can you actually accumulate? Can you really go up to 5 if you apply and don't get picked that many times?<br /><br />MarcoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6900756789775770074.post-10865647584649628632011-12-13T09:24:50.926-05:002011-12-13T09:24:50.926-05:00Next year is your year! Chin up!Next year is your year! Chin up!JPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02425273613201043846noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6900756789775770074.post-33651619438606326392011-12-13T08:48:01.512-05:002011-12-13T08:48:01.512-05:00I think there is some flaw in your stat. I'm ...I think there is some flaw in your stat. I'm no statistician either. Here what I vaguely remembered from stat class 20 years ago. Your chance of NOT getting picked with 3 tickets in a bucket of 2113 tickets on the first draw is 2110/2113 = 0.998580218. On the second draw, the total # of tickets is 2112. So the probability of NOT getting picked is 2109/2112 = 0.998579545. The third draw, it's 2108/2111 = 0.998578873.......on the 267th draw, it's 1843/1846 = 0.998375744. <br /><br />Now here is the crux: the probability of the 3 tickets not getting picked in 267 draw is the the product of each of the 267 events. So 0.998580218 x 0.998579545 x 0.998578873 x ...... x 0.998375744 = 0.666664516. <br /><br />So the probability of having 3 tickets in the lottery and not getting picked once in 267 draws is 66.7%. Hence the probability of getting one of those tickets picked in 267 draws is 33.3%, or 1 in 3 chances. <br /><br />For the 2013 race, with 4 tickets, it's up to 41% to get in, assuming the same # of tickets in the bucket.<br /><br />2014 race, with 5 tickets, 49% chance to get in.<br /><br />2015 race, 6 tickets, 55% chance to get in.<br /><br />So now 2012 is over. The probability of you not get in once for 2013-2015 is the 0.59 x 0.51 x 0.45 = 0.13. Therefore the probability of getting in once in that 3 year span is 0.87, or 87%. <br /><br />That's a lot math for before 9am. <br /><br />I think they need to get rid of 50 mile qualifications, especially with the really slow time. That's like reducing the BQ to 2 hours in a 1/2 marathon for a 40 year old man.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00921924865002345936noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6900756789775770074.post-8350619779619992122011-12-13T07:24:11.642-05:002011-12-13T07:24:11.642-05:00I agree with nancy. WS should be one and done, unl...I agree with nancy. WS should be one and done, unless you DNF - then you can keep trying til you finish.shelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08484258407276573441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6900756789775770074.post-84291026534565556902011-12-13T06:21:53.806-05:002011-12-13T06:21:53.806-05:00Another idea..... if you raced the year before you...Another idea..... if you raced the year before you are not allowed to enter the following year to give others a chance! (Nancy F.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6900756789775770074.post-75937739317820234432011-12-13T01:56:33.142-05:002011-12-13T01:56:33.142-05:00Anyone who wins the "WHAT'S THE POINT RAC...Anyone who wins the "WHAT'S THE POINT RACE" should have automatic entry to the next (whatever race).Jimmy Ballardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6900756789775770074.post-15743355519723882812011-12-13T01:51:03.495-05:002011-12-13T01:51:03.495-05:00You should be accepted just because you're an ...You should be accepted just because you're an ULTRA STUD and they should be happy to have you there!Jimmy Ballardnoreply@blogger.com