Comments on So Far From Normal: Reflections on the Western States Lottery

Gerber - what are the odds of getting into Hardroc...

2011-12-13T21:21:34.353-05:00

Gerber - what are the odds of getting into Hardrock 3 times in a row?? Pretty slim I would guess ;)

I am regretting though not using my qualifier to at least try to get in for next year. Oh well - I guess I will just have to get one this year too....

Those are way better odds than Hardrock. :-)

2011-12-13T19:20:50.648-05:00

Those are way better odds than Hardrock. :-)

Marco - as it stands, there is no end game. Keep l...

2011-12-13T09:53:30.535-05:00

Marco - as it stands, there is no end game. Keep losing the lottery, and you will get an extra ticket in the draw for the following year, subject to qualifying.

Jim, you are right, that is way too much math for that early in the morning! But thanks - I will look at your methodology, it makes sense.... and gives me some hope!

how many tickes can you actually accumulate? Can y...

2011-12-13T09:48:06.640-05:00

how many tickes can you actually accumulate? Can you really go up to 5 if you apply and don't get picked that many times?

Marco

Next year is your year! Chin up!

2011-12-13T09:24:50.926-05:00

Next year is your year! Chin up!

I think there is some flaw in your stat. I'm ...

2011-12-13T08:48:01.512-05:00

I think there is some flaw in your stat. I'm no statistician either. Here what I vaguely remembered from stat class 20 years ago. Your chance of NOT getting picked with 3 tickets in a bucket of 2113 tickets on the first draw is 2110/2113 = 0.998580218. On the second draw, the total # of tickets is 2112. So the probability of NOT getting picked is 2109/2112 = 0.998579545. The third draw, it's 2108/2111 = 0.998578873.......on the 267th draw, it's 1843/1846 = 0.998375744.

Now here is the crux: the probability of the 3 tickets not getting picked in 267 draw is the the product of each of the 267 events. So 0.998580218 x 0.998579545 x 0.998578873 x ...... x 0.998375744 = 0.666664516.

So the probability of having 3 tickets in the lottery and not getting picked once in 267 draws is 66.7%. Hence the probability of getting one of those tickets picked in 267 draws is 33.3%, or 1 in 3 chances.

For the 2013 race, with 4 tickets, it's up to 41% to get in, assuming the same # of tickets in the bucket.

2014 race, with 5 tickets, 49% chance to get in.

2015 race, 6 tickets, 55% chance to get in.

So now 2012 is over. The probability of you not get in once for 2013-2015 is the 0.59 x 0.51 x 0.45 = 0.13. Therefore the probability of getting in once in that 3 year span is 0.87, or 87%.

That's a lot math for before 9am.

I think they need to get rid of 50 mile qualifications, especially with the really slow time. That's like reducing the BQ to 2 hours in a 1/2 marathon for a 40 year old man.

I agree with nancy. WS should be one and done, unl...

2011-12-13T07:24:11.642-05:00

I agree with nancy. WS should be one and done, unless you DNF - then you can keep trying til you finish.

Another idea..... if you raced the year before you...

2011-12-13T06:21:53.806-05:00

Another idea..... if you raced the year before you are not allowed to enter the following year to give others a chance! (Nancy F.)

Anyone who wins the "WHAT'S THE POINT RAC...

2011-12-13T01:56:33.142-05:00

Anyone who wins the "WHAT'S THE POINT RACE" should have automatic entry to the next (whatever race).

You should be accepted just because you're an ...

2011-12-13T01:51:03.495-05:00

You should be accepted just because you're an ULTRA STUD and they should be happy to have you there!